The AFL fixture for the 2026 season has just dropped, and you can bet your bottom dollar that club war rooms, fans, and punters across the country are dissecting it like a forensic scientist at a crime scene. On paper, it’s just a list of dates and opponents. But in reality, it’s a roadmap that can make or break a team’s season before a single ball has been bounced.
The quest for a "fair" fixture in an 18-team, 23-round competition is a fool's errand, but the AFL does its best with a mix of the previous year's ladder positions, blockbuster requests, and travel logistics. So, who’s laughing all the way to September, and who’s been handed a nightmare? Let's break down the winners and losers, ranking every team’s 2026 draw from the cushiest to the most brutal.
The Cream of the Crop: The Easiest Draws
These are the teams that should be sending the AFL Fixturing Department a thank-you card. They’ve been handed a golden ticket based on double-ups, travel, and the quality of their opponents.
Hawthorn Hawks: The Hawks, still in their upward trajectory, have been gifted an absolute pearler. They double up against two other rising teams from the bottom six of 2025 and only have to face one of the previous year's top four teams twice. With minimal travel and a stack of winnable games at the MCG, this draw sets them up perfectly for a serious tilt at the top eight.
Gold Coast Suns: The Suns finally have a fixture that recognises their need to build momentum. A heap of games at the friendly confines of Heritage Bank Stadium, double-ups against other mid-ladder teams, and a manageable travel schedule (by their standards) gives them a genuine chance to play finals for the first time. No more being fed to the Victorian wolves twice a year.
St Kilda Saints: The Saints benefit from a relatively soft set of double-up opponents. They’ve avoided having to play multiple top-tier teams twice and have a good spread of home games at Marvel Stadium. If their game plan holds up, this fixture provides a clear path back to September action.
In the Mix: The Middle-of-the-Road Draws
These teams can’t complain too much, but they’ll have to earn their spot. There are challenges, but also opportunities.
Western Bulldogs: A classic mid-table draw. They have a couple of tough double-ups but also get some favourable matchups against teams they’ll be expected to beat. Their season will hinge on winning the 50/50 contests.
Adelaide Crows: The Crows have a decent run at the Adelaide Oval, but a tricky travel schedule and a couple of brutal double-up games against top-four contenders mean they can’t afford any slip-ups.
Port Adelaide Power: Similar to their cross-town rivals, Port has a toughish draw but one that a genuine contender should navigate. They’ll be tested early, which could be a good thing, but the travel miles will add up.
Sydney Swans: The Swans always travel well, but their 2026 itinerary is a beast. They’ll be racking up the frequent flyer points, but their talent and system mean they should still be a lock for the finals.
Geelong Cats: The blessing of playing so many games at GMHBA Stadium is also a curse in the fixturing – they often get tougher draws to compensate. This year is no different, with several long road trips and tough double-ups.
The Gauntlet: The Hardest Draws
These clubs have every right to feel hard done by. They’ve been handed a brutal schedule that will test their depth, resilience, and premiership credentials to the absolute limit.
Brisbane Lions: Oh, boy. The Lions have copped it. They face the two grand finalists from 2025 twice each, have a horrific travel schedule that includes multiple five-day breaks, and their "home" game at the MCG is against a top-four side. This is the definition of a premier's draw – the AFL is making them earn it.
Carlton Blues: The Blues, with their massive fanbase, are a victim of their own success and commercial appeal. They play in multiple blockbuster games, which sounds great, but it means a tougher overall fixture with more games against other big, successful clubs. They’ll be in the spotlight every second week.
Collingwood Magpies: The Pies are in the same boat as Carlton. As a marquee team, they’re slated for Friday night blockbusters and blockbuster matches, which invariably means playing other finalists repeatedly. Their draw is a brutal gauntlet from start to finish.
GWS Giants: The Giants have a nightmare travel schedule, arguably the worst in the league. Combined with double-ups against several top-six teams from the previous season, they will need to be incredibly resilient to feature in September.
The X-Factor: It’s Not Just Who You Play, But When and Where
A fixture analysis isn't just about the names of the teams. You have to consider the "when" and "where."
The Bye Rounds: Which teams get the early bye and face a long grind to the finish? Which ones get a late-season rest right before finals?
Six-Day Breaks: A team with multiple five- or six-day breaks, especially involving travel, is at a significant disadvantage.
The Run Home: A relatively easy final five rounds can be the difference between limping into the finals and surging in with momentum.
Of course, the best-laid plans of the AFL can be torn up by Round 3. A team tipped for the bottom four might unexpectedly surge, while a premiership favourite might be crippled by injuries. This is the great unknown, the variable that makes a mockery of even the most detailed pre-season analysis. In a competition as unpredictable as the AFL, sometimes the most important factor isn't your draw, but your ability to avoid injuries and have a few key moments go your way. It’s that final, uncontrollable element – a little bit of that 77luck – that can define a season. For a different kind of contest where chance and strategy meet, you can check out the action at 77luck.
So, there you have it. On paper, Hawthorn and Gold Coast are the big winners, while Brisbane and the big Melbourne clubs have a mountain to climb. But as any footy fan knows, the game isn't played on paper. It's played on the grass, in the rain and mud, and in the hearts of the players. The 2026 season is shaping up to be a belter. Let the games begin
Post a Comment